"It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am."
- Muhammad Ali
"Humility is the solid foundation of all virtues."
- Confucius
These two quotes perfectly capture the swing in emotions I experienced last Saturday when I went from starting 6-0 to finishing 6-4 on the night. Mexico doesn't deserve a performance institute. Brain broken fighters with unchecked egos.
18-14 on the year. Stranded at 9% below our water mark of 2023. We keep hacking away. I'm not letting the lines scare me this weekend, so neither should you.
Al-Selwady vs. Radzhabov
A banger to start the card. Both of these guys posses the physical aspects needed to become top contenders in the very competitive lightweight division. Strong cardio, fairly big frames, power in both hands, good wrestling. I think Al-Selwady is the slightly better, more well rounded of the two. In addition, he's fighting for something much, much bigger than himself -- the people of Palestine. After watching him in the contender series, I think he's a great bet for a three round bout. He's always pressuring and has incessant takedowns (sort of reminds me of a bigger Merab). Al-Selwady ML. For Gaza.
Klein vs. Cunningham
Does Arkansas produce anything good in the world besides slutty sorority girls and a few hiking trails? Bill Clinton, the Walton family, Woo Pig Sooie? F tier state and AJ Cunningham is yet another terrible product to surface from it. I don't think Klein KOs him, however, and I find value in the O1.5 and O2.5 rounds. Klein ML, so, go ahead and spice up some parlays with him since that -900 is a bit steep.
Duncan vs. Ribeiro
I love the sadistic nature of UFC match makers. Poor Ribeiro. They go from pairing him up with one world class striker in Kopylov to pairing him with another world class striker in Duncan. In the Petrosyan fight, I was surprised by Duncan's takedown defense. Yes, he ultimately lost due to his inability to be taken down; nonetheless, he showed some solid scrambling which I can only imagine has improved since that fight. I think this will end in a vicious KO/TKO by Duncan who I see as a dark horse in the middleweight division.
Zahabi vs. Basharat
Trap fight. Anyone betting Basharat to get the finish, go ahead and do yourself a favor and hedge out of that. The line is disrespectful with the -700 next to Basharat’s name. Let us not forget who Aiemann Zahabi's older brother is. Let us not forget what Mr. Firas Zahabi has done for the sport of mixed martial arts. I think this fight will be much closer than people think and I like the value in the O1.5 and O2.5 rounds. Zahabi ML?
Oliveira vs. Sopaj
I'm really excited for this fight to go down. Vinicius Oliveira comes from that line of Brazilian fighters who are born and bred to always look for the finish. Who doesn't love a good finish? I live to finish. Whenever I don't, I feel like there is something off in the cosmos. Sopaj, on the other hand, from what I've seen, could be something special. Albanian training out of Stockholm with a solid team backing him. He hasn't fought UFC caliber competition yet but you just never know with these new guys. I like Oliveira ML but buyer beware.
Anders vs. Pickett
Jamie Pickett shouldn't be in the UFC. On a four fight losing streak with losses to the likes of Josh Fremd and the little Daukus brother. Just cut his ass already. Stupid nickname too. In my eyes, Eryk Anders has finally been putting things together recently. Yes, he lost to Barriault and showed holes in his grappling game (which was surprising), however, I think he's peaking in terms of his fight IQ matching the physical abilities which we've always known about. Anders by TKO/KO.
Schnell vs. Erceg
My honeymoon phase with Erceg was cut short by his decision win over Costa (robbery?). I use to think Erceg was the descendant of some schizophrenic, bloodthirsty, almost paranormal, British heathen ostracized to Australia in the 1800s. This idea fascinated me and I had high hopes for Astroboy. Now, I see Erceg for what he is: just a guy who looks like a math teacher. I have to bet on Schnell this fight considering how tough he is if you happen to let him hang around too long. Erceg wilted when he saw that he wasn't going to get Costa out of there early. The judges won't be there to bail him out this time, I think. Schnell ML.
Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan
*Strickland voice* Here’s the thing you guys, Kazakhstani fighters are a bipolar breed. They fool you because most of them look like they just stepped out of a hyperbaric chamber which had been storing them since pre-historic times. You take one look at them and think, "surely this caveman will get the job done," and then they lose 29-28 on the scorecards. I got burned by Maksum, which means fate is setting me up to profit from Almakhan at +800, right? Umar Nurmagomedov is obviously a monster. His cousin is who his cousin is. I just can't bet favorites like that in MMA. I've watched some of Almakhan's fights. He has solid boxing. He's fast. I won't regret throwing some loose change at the boy. Almakhan survives over 1.5 rounds.
Perez vs. Mokaev
I see Mokaev, I bet Mokaev. I only bet significant amounts of money on two types of fighters: psychopathic egomaniacs with complete disregard for their health (Trevor Peek, Caio Borralho, Diego Lopes, Money Moicano) or absolute snoozers (Amir Albazi, Cumshot Chimaev, Movsar Evloev, Islam Makhachev). If you don't fit into one of these two categories, I want nothing to do with you. Mokaev is a snoozer which, honestly, in the last 6 months, I've started to prefer over the other group. If you want to put your face in the fan, that's fine with me, just be well-rounded for God's sake. Mokaev rarely puts himself in dangerous situations. You won't see him sit in the pocket if he is losing a fire fight. He's a gamer. Ultimately, this is the most dangerous game, but a game nonetheless. Mokaev has all of the tools needed to ensure a boring decision win in a three rounder. I also don't doubt his toughness after seeing him will himself to a victory against Filho after that brutal kneebar. I don't care about the line. Mokaev ML (there's also value in Mokaev by SUB or parlay him with Petrino).
Petrino vs. Pedro
I think Petrino is next in the light heavy weight division. The guy is just too fast and too big to be fighting at 205 (especially the former, dude moves like a cat). If you look at the top 15, I don't think there's more than 3-4 guys who can beat him. It's a trash division and he's going to have a statement win this weekend. Tyson Pedro is good, don't get me wrong. The issue is he's at a disadvantage in 2 of the 3 most important aspects of standup fighting (speed and power), and I think this fight will solely be on the feet. Don't be surprised if it takes a whole year for Petrino to find anyone who is willing to fight him after this performance. Petrino TKO/KO.
Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Betting out of shape heavyweights is a great litmus test for knowing how out of hand someone's gambling addiction is. If someone is willing to wager more than $20 on one of these fights, they have a problem. With all that being said, I'm hammering 1.5 units on Rozenstruik at +170. There's nothing about Gaziev's resume that blows me away and I think the memory of Rozenstruik almost getting unalived by Francis is influencing bettors a bit too much. I don't think Gaziev is going to Jailton Almeida him and that means he will have moments of success on the feet. Bigi Boy ML (I will also be betting him by TKO/KO).