Vale verga. No sirve este güey. Pues ya no jala como antes cuando era menos impaciente. I’ve said it before, you can’t get excited in this game. There’s no comfort in knowing that other UFC bettors had a bad week. No excuses, but also not blowing it out of proportion. Bad card. That’s what it is. That’s what it was.
Costa vs. Nuerdanbieke
I’m going to believe in myself. Who else is going to if I don’t? Costa has a lot of the tangible and intangible things you want to see in a fighter. Steve Garcia reminded him this is the fight game and you can always make it ugly. Good lesson to learn before 30. Costa decision 1 unit. Costa ML 1.5 units.
Saragih vs. Wilson
I’m going to believe in myself. Here’s the thing, does anybody want to go toe-to-toe on adaptability? We can laugh, we can joke, but when everyone’s nuts are hanging out at the town diner, does anybody want to bet who flinches first? No gimmicks. Maybe I struggle with eye contact because of something outside of being on the spectrum. It becomes harder to announce that openly. Globally. At least not right now. Same way nobody wants to stand and bang. Trade with that. If not now, when? I’m in no hurry. This number is a bit ridiculous but I’ve grown to understand it. Saragih is kind of electric. I see it, line-makers. 1 unit that it goes over on rounds. That’s the value I see. Funny hats are like 5-2.
Quinlan vs. Fugitt
Im going to believe in myself. How is Josh Quinlan ever a favorite in a fight? I refuse to believe Fugitt is that bad. No. Fugitt ML 1.5 units. I also like the over on rounds but not betting much on that.
Flick vs. Maness
Another wild line. Once again, 125 and I doing this weird dance. I seem to like a lot of the fighters that are in this weight class. I’m 40/60 on picking fights in this weight class (and that’s being generous), however. Maness makes sense, but nobody should be betting that ML. The over 1.5 rounds at plus money seems like a steal. Leaning into that. 1 unit on the too good to be true over.
Ulanbekov vs. Van
Ulanbekov by finish 1 unit. Ulanbekov ML 2 units.
Hiestand vs. Armfield
Armfield is good and he hits hard. His gym isn’t half bad, either. I just don’t see myself betting this number. I like pocket change on Armfield ML and the O2.5 rounds.
Almabayev vs. Johnson
Build around the light house, build around Almabayev. This funny guy in my group of nomads said that Assu is what Money Mokaev wishes he was. Perhaps this funny guy is right. Sometimes it’s the clowns who have all the answers - like smashing NVIDIA a year ago. I’m going to chop this up a little weird. 1.5 units on Almabayev to win by finish.
Silva de Andrade vs. Johns
There is such a strong urge to bet the old, grizzled, Brazilian maniac. Turning against that feeling because Johns truly is a snoozer like none other. It’s a wash in terms of where my instinct is headed. Taking a technical look at things, I like the value on Johns. Johns ML 1 unit. Fight to go to decision .5 unit. Wait, what? No. No, I have to believe in myself. De Andrade ML 1 unit.
Cuamba vs. Almeida
Watch out. What if we do something a little weird here. Watch out. 1 unit on Cuamba over significant strikes landed. 1 unit on fight to go the distance.
Perez vs. Taira
You kind of have to believe in Alex Perez now. He’s got that So-Cal thing you either hate or love. Or you hate it on some people, but love it on others. Tatsuro doesn’t have the striking and I don’t like that shit. I just don’t. I’m no rocket scientist, obviously. Perez ML 1 unit.
Parlay:
- Costa ML
- Ulanbekov ML
- Cuamba ML