We came back to earth last week and washed out. As soon as I was robbed in the Machado fight, I put out the Rat symbol and doubled down on Karine. Hand up. I was naughty. That being said, we’re not going to chase like that this weekend, we just can’t. PPVs are not the place to hound down speeding cars with ceramic brakes. Awful card betting wise but we can see about churning that cream into butter. We see, we see.
Costa vs. Borjas
I’m done betting flyweights for more than 5% of the flesh I have on the line any given night. Those little guy fights make no sense (as if anything in this sport does). Both when there is a stoppage or with the judging - chaos. Costa ML 5% of the bag via Chute Box class. I just don’t think Borjas has nailed down the “mixed” part of MMA. I’m a fucking mouth breather, too, so, buyer beware.
Bonfim vs. Pinchel
Odds are too insane to bet straight up on a guy who has been upset badly before (like other fighters this card). Not saying to bet on Pinchel but it’s either Bonfim or Pereira who stink it up this weekend. Pick your poison, I guess. Bonfim will be more motivate and I can’t handle how unserious Pereira is in the cage.
Ruffy vs. Mullarkey
I’ve been waiting to fade this contender series prospect. Ruffy beat a good, physical opponent in the DWCS and everyone started creaming themselves. I think it was the other guy’s gas tank giving up on him once he wasn’t able to get Ruffy out there, more so than Ruffy’s skill, which won that fight. Sure, good counter boxing and shot selection by Ruffy. Still, Mullarkey is a zombie and you need to spark him or he will break you. Completely different fight from last year. This is a litmus test most young fighters can’t pass. I think Mullarkey gains more respect as the fight goes. Mullarkey 10% of the purse ML. Might regret not betting this more.
Silva vs. Klose
Drakkar seems to have something wrong with him. I like that. You know I do. A loose screw plus a fairly safe fighting style will always beat whatever technique and daily affirmations or whatever bullshit you want to bring to the table. Silva doesn’t worry me with his BJJ against a guy as maniacal as Klose. 15% of my money this card goes on Klose ML.
Brenner vs. Orolbai
The oddsmakers dragged me back into betting this fight when I thought I was out. Michael and I talked at the lake. The Brenner disrespect is just too much. He’s got the experience and egomaniac profile you love to see. Expect to see him eat a cinder block and smile right back while doing so. Expect for him to get back up after a successful takedown - on rage alone. Yes, Orolbai appeals to my love for snoozers and Neolithic-era men from Eastern Europe, sure. He’s a beautiful specimen that pushes the boundaries of the human imagination, I hear you. Nonetheless, I have to throw ~10% of my cash on Brenner ML.
Shore vs. Brito
Baby whale, again. Time to get my heart broken somehow, again. There is some sort of mysticism tied to this whale. Brito confidently beat Diego Lopes back in the contender series. That should tell you everything you need to know. Don’t get me wrong, Jack Shore worries me in some ways. He’s got the experience and he’s tough. I just think Brito is la nueva generación. Brito ML and make it ~30% of your bank roll.
Parlay the next three fights: Borralho, Pereira (can be substituted with Bonfim), Petrino. The Favela Trifecta. Do it, my brudda. We can’t afford to lose. Yet, we’ve got nothing to lose. Oh, how could I almost forget, 15% of the bag on Petrino KO/TKO/DQ.
Martinez vs. Aldo
Brazil isn’t going to like how this fight ends. It could be nasty. I think Martinez reminds us why Aldo was retired. The head movement and speed aren’t there anymore and - to make matters worse - he’s facing a guy who won’t be on the back foot. Flashbacks to the Yan “fight.” Martinez ML takes up roughly 10% of my gambling gambles this weekend.
Pantoja vs. Erceg
I’m betting 5% of my skrilla this weekend on Pantoja ML. 5% and I still have a terrible feeling about it. Why do I do this to myself? Why do I let the 125 pound division torment me with amazing fights that don’t go my way? On a Main Event, to make matters worse, where I usually shit down my leg. I’ve become stingy. I think I just believe in Pantoja’s daddy issues too much. That’s the honest to God answer. What? Did you expect some technical analysis like, “Pantoja will be able to have top control and keep the fight out of danger which I leads to a unanimous decision or submission”? You’ve come to the wrong place if you’re expecting that (but you probably know this, you’re smart, you think smart, think a little). Australian Michael Scott has power on his side, that’s why I’m hesitant. What keeps me confident is the fight experience from Pantoja (and the daddy issues). That’s why we still wade into the fire. I feel the love from the favelas. Also, if it goes to decision, I really do find it hard to believe the judges rob Brazilian fans [the idiot typed out while he was robbed in Mexico with Brandon Moreno]. It’s truly a gamble, but I’m half banking on corruption for the dub here.